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Sunderland vs Hull City — Premier League 2026

Sunderland
Sunderland
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hull City
Hull City
V. Anichebe 84', 62'
J. Defoe 34'
11/19/2016Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Sunderland49%
×Draw26%
Hull City24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunderland
1.47
Hull City
0.94

Sunderland creates 56% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 39 away

creates per match

Sunderland
1.07
Hull City
0.54

allows per match

Sunderland
1.34
Hull City
1.87

finishing

Sunderland+0.00on par
Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw
76%
Sunderland or Hull City
74%
Draw or Hull City
51%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+
25%
Hull City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals
77%
Sunderland 2+ goals
43%
Sunderland 3+ goals
18%
Hull City 1+ goals
61%
Hull City 2+ goals
24%
Hull City 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)
67%
Hull City (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.34 · 73 matches

Hull City away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.87 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.07 + Hull City defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.47

Hull City attack 0.54 + Sunderland defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sunderland scores more
49%
level
26%
Hull City scores more
24%

Sunderland at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
J. PickfordSunderlandSunderland · G
8.1

Match Events

30'
Papy Djilobodji
34'
J. Defoe↳ D. Watmore
62'
V. Anichebe↳ P. van Aanholt
68'
J. Bowen← J. Tymon
72'
Billy Jones
78'
D. Meyler← R. Mason
83'
J. O'Shea← J. Denayer
84'
V. Anichebe↳ J. Defoe
88'
D. Love← P. McNair
89'
Papy Djilobodji
89'
Papy Djilobodji

Possession

41%Sunderland

Shots

11Sunderland

Pass accuracy

47%Sunderland

Statistics

SunderlandHull
Overview
41%Possession59%
11Total Shots17
2Corners8
9Fouls8
Shots
11Total Shots17
4On Target7
3Off Target6
4Blocked4
8Inside Box10
3Outside Box7
Passing
41%Possession59%
374Total Passes515
295Accurate Passes456
79%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls8
3Yellow Cards0
1Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Sunderland vs Hull City

Sunderland beat Hull City 3-0 in Premier League on November 19, 2016.

Goals: J. Defoe (34'), V. Anichebe (62', 84').

Hull City controlled possession (59%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadium of Light in Sunderland.