Cultural Leonesa 2–1 Cordoba: Result & Stats

Cultural Leonesa

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cordoba

Rodri 53'

E. Buendía 25'

Sergi Guardiola 88'

4/29/2018

Segunda División · Round 37Estadio Reino de Leon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Cultural Leonesa36%

×Draw27%

Cordoba37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cultural LeonesaExpected goals in this matchCordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.27

Cultural Leonesa

1.24

Cordoba

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 65 away

0.74

creates per match

1.05

1.48

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa

0.74

Cordoba

1.05

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa

1.48

Cordoba

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa ↓

Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa or draw

63%

Cultural Leonesa or Cordoba

73%

Draw or Cordoba

64%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

15%

Cordoba wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

71%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

35%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

13%

Cordoba 1+ goals

72%

Cordoba 2+ goals

36%

Cordoba 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

49%

Cordoba (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

Cordoba away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.74 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa attack 0.74 + Cordoba defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.24

Cordoba attack 1.05 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cultural Leonesa scores more

36%

level

27%

Cordoba scores more

37%

Cordoba at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

E. Buendía

Cultural Leonesa · M

8.1

Match Events

25'

E. Buendía

45'

Alex Quintanilla

46'

Sergi Guardiola← Miguel Loureiro

53'

Rodri↳ Ángel Bastos

59'

Álvaro Aguado← S. Jovanović

62'

Antonio Martinez Felipe

63'

Jesús Valentín

70'

Eneko Jauregi← José Antonio Reyes

75'

Eneko Jauregi

81'

Thierry Moutinho← Antonio Martínez

88'

Sergi Guardiola↳ Javier Galán

90'

90'

90'

90'

90'

Yeray González← Sergio Marcos

90+3'

Ibán Salvador← Rodri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CulturalCordoba

Overview

58%Possession42%

7Total Shots9

3Corners6

18Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots9

4On Target2

3Off Target3

0Blocked4

4Inside Box6

3Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

459Total Passes318

374Accurate Passes225

81%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls14

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

5Offsides4

Segunda División: Cultural Leonesa 2–1 Cordoba

Cultural Leonesa beat Cordoba 2-1 in Segunda División on April 29, 2018.

Goals: E. Buendía (25'), Rodri (53'), Sergi Guardiola (88').

Cultural Leonesa controlled possession (58%) and registered 7 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Reino de Leon in Leon.

Cultural Leonesa vs Cordoba — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Cultural Leonesa 2–1 Cordoba