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Cultural Leonesa vs Cordoba — Segunda División 2018

Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Cordoba
Cordoba
Bicho 64'
Percan 90'
M. Barzic 52' (OG)
4/18/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 36Estadio Municipal Reino de León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Cultural Leonesa36%
×Draw27%
Cordoba37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cultural Leonesa
1.25
Cordoba
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 65 away

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa
0.77
Cordoba
1.05

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa
1.50
Cordoba
1.74

finishing

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par
Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa ↓

Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa or draw
63%
Cultural Leonesa or Cordoba
73%
Draw or Cordoba
64%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
16%
Cordoba wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
71%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
36%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
13%
Cordoba 1+ goals
72%
Cordoba 2+ goals
36%
Cordoba 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
49%
Cordoba (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

Cordoba away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.74 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa attack 0.77 + Cordoba defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.25

Cordoba attack 1.05 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cultural Leonesa scores more
36%
level
27%
Cordoba scores more
37%

Cordoba at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
I. AlvarezCordobaCordoba · G
8.9

Match Events

40'
Bicho
41'
Dani Requena
52'
M. BarzicOwn goal
60'
J. Gonzalez← K. Medina
60'
T. Zidane← D. Requena
64'
Bicho
67'
M. Justo← D. Collado
69'
Percan← A. Fuentes
69'
M. Goti Lopez← S. Guardiola
78'
D. Bri← C. Carracedo
81'
L. Ribeiro← Q. Fornos
81'
V. Moreno← Bicho
81'
R. Hinojo← H. Al Amin
90+3'
M. Diallo Selu← M. Barzic
90'
Percan↳ A. del Moral

Possession

53%Cultural

Shots

17Cultural

Pass accuracy

50%Cultural

Statistics

CulturalCordoba
Overview
53%Possession47%
17Total Shots18
1.43Expected Goals (xG)1.53
4Corners8
15Fouls15
Shots
17Total Shots18
10On Target6
5Off Target6
2Blocked6
10Inside Box13
7Outside Box5
Passing
53%Possession47%
400Total Passes350
333Accurate Passes291
83%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
5Saves9
Discipline
15Fouls15
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides4

Match Recap: Cultural Leonesa vs Cordoba

Cordoba beat Cultural Leonesa 2-1 in Segunda División on April 18, 2026.

Goals: M. Barzic (52' o.g.), Bicho (64'), Percan (90').

Cultural Leonesa controlled possession (53%) and registered 17 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Reino de León in León.