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Cordoba vs Cultural Leonesa — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Cordoba
Cordoba
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
2/26/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Estadio Nuevo Arcángel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cordoba46%
×Draw26%
Cultural Leonesa27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cordoba
1.45
Cultural Leonesa
1.05

Cordoba creates 38% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 88 away

creates per match

Cordoba
1.58
Cultural Leonesa
1.16

allows per match

Cordoba
0.95
Cultural Leonesa
1.31

finishing

Cordoba+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cordoba ↓

Cultural Leonesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cordoba or draw
73%
Cordoba or Cultural Leonesa
74%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa
54%

Winning margin

Cordoba wins by 2+
23%
Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cordoba 1+ goals
77%
Cordoba 2+ goals
42%
Cordoba 3+ goals
18%
Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
65%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
28%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cordoba (draw refunded)
63%
Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cordoba at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cordoba attack 1.58 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.45

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.16 + Cordoba defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cordoba scores more
46%
level
26%
Cultural Leonesa scores more
27%

Cordoba at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cordoba vs Cultural Leonesa

Cordoba beat Cultural Leonesa 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Arcángel in Córdoba.