Cordoba 1–0 Cultural Leonesa: Result & Stats

Cordoba

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cultural Leonesa

A. Fuentes 45'

10/13/2025

Segunda División · Round 9Estadio Nuevo Arcángel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Cordoba45%

×Draw24%

Cultural Leonesa32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CordobaExpected goals in this matchCultural Leonesa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.36

Cordoba

1.66

Cultural Leonesa

1.36

Cordoba creates 22% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 23 away

1.53

creates per match

1.22

1.50

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Cordoba

1.53

Cultural Leonesa

1.22

allows per match

Cordoba

1.50

Cultural Leonesa

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cordoba+0.00on par

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cordoba ↓

Cultural Leonesa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Cordoba or draw

68%

Cordoba or Cultural Leonesa

76%

Draw or Cultural Leonesa

55%

Winning margin

Cordoba wins by 2+

23%

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cordoba 1+ goals

81%

Cordoba 2+ goals

49%

Cordoba 3+ goals

23%

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

74%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

39%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Cordoba (draw refunded)

59%

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cordoba at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.50 · 66 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cordoba attack 1.53 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.66

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.22 + Cordoba defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cordoba scores more

45%

level

24%

Cultural Leonesa scores more

32%

Cordoba at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

C. Isaac

Cordoba · D

7.9

Match Events

45'

A. Fuentes

64'

A. del Moral← D. de Almeida

66'

Dani Requena

67'

P. Cortes← M. Justo

67'

M. Diallo Selu← Bicho

67'

L. Ribeiro← D. Collado

73'

S. Guardiola← A. Fuentes

74'

T. Zidane← D. Requena

81'

D. Bri← C. Carracedo

81'

K. Medina← J. Gonzalez

82'

Carlos Isaac

83'

D. Paraschiv← L. Chacon

85'

85'

87'

87'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CordobaCultural

Overview

55%Possession45%

19Total Shots15

4Corners6

19Fouls15

Shots

19Total Shots15

5On Target5

10Off Target6

4Blocked4

12Inside Box9

7Outside Box6

Passing

55%Possession45%

396Total Passes316

322Accurate Passes247

81%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

19Fouls15

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides4