Stuttgarter K'rs U19 0–0 Heidenheim U19

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Heidenheim U19

2/17/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 17Kunstrasenplatz SV Stuttgarter Kickers

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U1935%

×Draw23%

Heidenheim U1942%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stuttgarter K'rs U19Expected goals in this matchHeidenheim U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.73

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.56

Heidenheim U19

1.73

Heidenheim U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 73 away

1.56

creates per match

1.59

1.88

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.56

Heidenheim U19

1.59

allows per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.88

Heidenheim U19

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par

Heidenheim U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 ↓

Heidenheim U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or draw

58%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or Heidenheim U19

77%

Draw or Heidenheim U19

65%

Winning margin

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+

17%

Heidenheim U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals

79%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals

46%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals

21%

Heidenheim U19 1+ goals

82%

Heidenheim U19 2+ goals

52%

Heidenheim U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Heidenheim U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.88 · 59 matches

Heidenheim U19 away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.56 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.56 + Heidenheim U19 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.56

Heidenheim U19 attack 1.59 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more

35%

level

23%

Heidenheim U19 scores more

42%

Heidenheim U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Heidenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

J. Stark← A. Owusu

59'

M. Gueli← G. Mollo

67'

P. Janczukowicz← E. Kilic

69'

M. Maurer← M. Swiderski

85'

G. Gamuzza← A. Selimi

86'

N. Ganaus← A. Hajdarovic

86'

D. Perosevic← G. Kilic

Stuttgarter

Heidenheim

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Kovacevic

67'▲P. Janczukowicz←▼E. Kilic

85'▲G. Gamuzza←▼A. Selimi

86'▲N. Ganaus←▼A. Hajdarovic

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 substitutes

JanczukowiczGamuzzaGanausSelimiNujicBenkeser

Manager: J. Bauer

55'▲J. Stark←▼A. Owusu

59'▲M. Gueli←▼G. Mollo

69'▲M. Maurer←▼M. Swiderski

86'▲D. Perosevic←▼G. Kilic

Heidenheim U19 substitutes

StarkGueliMaurerPerosevicIbrahimSijarićHirschle