Heidenheim U19 1–1 Stuttgarter K'rs U19

Heidenheim U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

N. Rothweiler 57'

P. Scheele 12'

11/2/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 11Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Heidenheim U1952%

×Draw20%

Stuttgarter K'rs U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heidenheim U19Expected goals in this matchStuttgarter K'rs U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

1.70

Heidenheim U19

2.32

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.70

Heidenheim U19 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 38 away

1.93

creates per match

1.61

1.79

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Heidenheim U19

1.93

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.61

allows per match

Heidenheim U19

1.79

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heidenheim U19+0.00on par

Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heidenheim U19 ↓

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Heidenheim U19 or draw

72%

Heidenheim U19 or Stuttgarter K'rs U19

80%

Draw or Stuttgarter K'rs U19

48%

Winning margin

Heidenheim U19 wins by 2+

31%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Heidenheim U19 1+ goals

90%

Heidenheim U19 2+ goals

67%

Heidenheim U19 3+ goals

40%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals

82%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals

51%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Heidenheim U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heidenheim U19 at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.79 · 67 matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.71 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heidenheim U19 attack 1.93 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.32

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.61 + Heidenheim U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Heidenheim U19 scores more

52%

level

20%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more

28%

Heidenheim U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Heidenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

P. Scheele

46'

Y. Wagner← L. Mignano

46'

A. Mulaj← K. Dogan

57'

N. Rothweiler

60'

B. Rathgeber← T. Weigel

67'

S. Djokaj← M. Sulejmani

75'

A. Gusciglio← F. Aliqki

79'

M. Seeger← T. Lennerth

88'

E. Borgia← B. Sanlitürk

88'

T. Riehle← L. Schnerring

90+1'

L. Gjini← T. Windsheimer

Heidenheim

Stuttgarter

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: T. Fahrion

46'▲Y. Wagner←▼L. Mignano

60'▲B. Rathgeber←▼T. Weigel

75'▲A. Gusciglio←▼F. Aliqki

90+1'▲L. Gjini←▼T. Windsheimer

Heidenheim U19 substitutes

WagnerRathgeberGusciglioGjiniNiggelButkaFuchs

Manager: S. Ackermann

46'▲A. Mulaj←▼K. Dogan

67'▲S. Djokaj←▼M. Sulejmani

79'▲M. Seeger←▼T. Lennerth

88'▲E. Borgia←▼B. Sanlitürk

88'▲T. Riehle←▼L. Schnerring

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 substitutes

MulajDjokajSeegerBorgiaRiehleBayerBenzinger

U19 Bundesliga: Heidenheim U19 1–1 Stuttgarter K'rs U19

Heidenheim U19 and Stuttgarter K'rs U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on November 2, 2024.

Goals: P. Scheele (12'), N. Rothweiler (57').

The match was played at Walter-Birkhold-Jugendstadion in Heidenheim an der Brenz.

Heidenheim U19 vs Stuttgarter K'rs U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Heidenheim U19 1–1 Stuttgarter K'rs U19