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Stuttgarter K'rs U19 vs Heidenheim U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Stuttgarter K'rs U19
Stuttgarter K'rs U19
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Heidenheim U19
Heidenheim U19
8/17/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 4BZA Waldau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U1938%
×Draw22%
Heidenheim U1939%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stuttgarter K'rs U19
1.76
Heidenheim U19
1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 71 away

creates per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19
1.94
Heidenheim U19
1.68

allows per match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19
1.89
Heidenheim U19
1.58

finishing

Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par
Heidenheim U19+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 ↓

Heidenheim U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or draw
61%
Stuttgarter K'rs U19 or Heidenheim U19
78%
Draw or Heidenheim U19
62%

Winning margin

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+
20%
Heidenheim U19 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals
83%
Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals
52%
Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals
26%
Heidenheim U19 1+ goals
83%
Heidenheim U19 2+ goals
53%
Heidenheim U19 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)
49%
Heidenheim U19 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.89 · 36 matches

Heidenheim U19 away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.58 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.94 + Heidenheim U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.76

Heidenheim U19 attack 1.68 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more
38%
level
22%
Heidenheim U19 scores more
39%

Heidenheim U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Heidenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Stuttgarter K'rs U19 0–4 Heidenheim U19

Heidenheim U19 beat Stuttgarter K'rs U19 4-0 in U19 Bundesliga on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at BZA Waldau in Stuttgart.