Heidenheim U19 4–0 Stuttgarter K'rs U19

Heidenheim U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

A. Owusu 90+1' (pen)

N. Hellmann 52'

G. Kilic 35' (pen)

J. Brändle 14'

8/26/2018

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 4Trainingsgelände an der Voith-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Heidenheim U1955%

×Draw20%

Stuttgarter K'rs U1925%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heidenheim U19Expected goals in this matchStuttgarter K'rs U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.50

Heidenheim U19

2.29

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.50

Heidenheim U19 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 59 away

1.96

creates per match

1.27

1.73

allows per match

2.61

creates per match

Heidenheim U19

1.96

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.27

allows per match

Heidenheim U19

1.73

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

2.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heidenheim U19+0.00on par

Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heidenheim U19 ↓

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Heidenheim U19 or draw

75%

Heidenheim U19 or Stuttgarter K'rs U19

80%

Draw or Stuttgarter K'rs U19

45%

Winning margin

Heidenheim U19 wins by 2+

34%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Heidenheim U19 1+ goals

90%

Heidenheim U19 2+ goals

66%

Heidenheim U19 3+ goals

40%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals

78%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals

44%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Heidenheim U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heidenheim U19 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.73 · 70 matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.61 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heidenheim U19 attack 1.96 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.29

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.27 + Heidenheim U19 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Heidenheim U19 scores more

55%

level

20%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more

25%

Heidenheim U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Heidenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

J. Brändle

35'

G. KilicPenalty

46'

J. Wild← E. Selimi

46'

R. Filipovic← P. Janczukowicz

52'

N. Hellmann

64'

L. Piljek← M. Maurer

70'

O. Sijarić← G. Kilic

74'

L. Ukela← E. Nonnenmann

76'

A. Latifovic← E. Kilic

83'

D. Perosevic← M. Gueli

87'

M. Gölz← J. Brändle

90+1'

A. OwusuPenalty

Heidenheim

Stuttgarter

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

Kilic

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Bauer

64'▲L. Piljek←▼M. Maurer

70'▲O. Sijarić←▼G. Kilic

83'▲D. Perosevic←▼M. Gueli

87'▲M. Gölz←▼J. Brändle

Heidenheim U19 substitutes

PiljekSijarićPerosevicGölzTulinoIbrahimHirschle

Manager: M. Kovacevic

46'▲J. Wild←▼E. Selimi

46'▲R. Filipovic←▼P. Janczukowicz

74'▲L. Ukela←▼E. Nonnenmann

76'▲A. Latifovic←▼E. Kilic

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 substitutes

WildFilipovicUkelaLatifovicNujicGanausJukić

U19 Bundesliga: Heidenheim U19 4–0 Stuttgarter K'rs U19

Heidenheim U19 beat Stuttgarter K'rs U19 4-0 in U19 Bundesliga on August 26, 2018.

Goals: J. Brändle (14'), G. Kilic (35' pen), N. Hellmann (52'), A. Owusu (90+1' pen).

The match was played at Trainingsgelände an der Voith-Arena in Heidenheim an der Brenz.

Heidenheim U19 vs Stuttgarter K'rs U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Heidenheim U19 4–0 Stuttgarter K'rs U19