Stromsgodset 3–2 Viking: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Viking

H. Stengel 57' (pen)

L. Salvesen 52'

J. Hove 22'

V. Berisha 71', 38' (pen)

5/28/2022

Eliteserien · Round 9Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Stromsgodset32%

×Draw23%

Viking45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchViking

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.77

Stromsgodset

1.46

Viking

1.77

Viking creates 21% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 34 away

1.82

creates per match

1.74

1.81

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.82

Viking

1.74

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.81

Viking

1.09

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.60scores less

Viking+0.20scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Viking →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

55%

Stromsgodset or Viking

77%

Draw or Viking

68%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

15%

Viking wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

77%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

43%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

18%

Viking 1+ goals

83%

Viking 2+ goals

53%

Viking 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

42%

Viking (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.81 · 37 matches

Viking away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Viking defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.46

Viking attack 1.74 + Stromsgodset defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

32%

level

23%

Viking scores more

45%

Viking at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

V. Berisha

Viking · F

8.9

Match Events

22'

J. Hove↳ L. Salvesen

37'

Gustav Valsvik

38'

V. BerishaPenalty

46'

T. Gulliksen← O. Enersen

52'

L. Salvesen↳ J. Hove

57'

H. StengelPenalty

61'

S. Pattynama← H. Tangen

61'

V. Vevatne← D. Brekalo

62'

K. Løkberg← M. Solbakken

67'

K. Kabran← Y. de Lanlay

67'

D. Karlsbakk← N. Sandberg

71'

V. Berisha↳ K. Kabran

76'

Lars Christopher Vilsvik

76'

Viljar Helland Vevatne

78'

F. Friday← L. Salvesen

80'

Shayne Pattynama

87'

I. Jack← J. Hove

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetViking

Overview

42%Possession58%

15Total Shots15

5Corners8

12Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots15

6On Target5

4Off Target7

5Blocked3

9Inside Box11

6Outside Box4

Passing

42%Possession58%

338Total Passes445

226Accurate Passes347

67%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2