Stromsgodset 1–1 Start: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Start

M. Mawa 78'

C. Bolaños 39' (pen)

10/18/2020

Eliteserien · Round 21Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Stromsgodset48%

×Draw23%

Start29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchStart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.35

Stromsgodset

1.82

Start

1.35

Stromsgodset creates 35% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 8 away

1.82

creates per match

0.90

1.81

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.82

Start

0.90

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.81

Start

1.82

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.60scores less

Start+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Start →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

71%

Stromsgodset or Start

77%

Draw or Start

52%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

27%

Start wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

84%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

54%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

27%

Start 1+ goals

74%

Start 2+ goals

39%

Start 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

63%

Start (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.81 · 37 matches

Start away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.82 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Start defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.82

Start attack 0.90 + Stromsgodset defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

48%

level

23%

Start scores more

29%

Stromsgodset at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

M. Maigaard

Stromsgodset · M

8.2

Match Events

38'

Jack Ipalibo

39'

C. BolañosPenalty

66'

Mohamed El Makrini

68'

Jack Ipalibo

68'

Jack Ipalibo

69'

E. Marković← C. Bolaños

76'

J. Jørgensen← J. Daland

76'

E. Segberg← E. Schulze

77'

M. Bringaker← E. Børufsen

78'

M. Mawa

79'

Niklas Gunnarsson

82'

E. Wichne← H. Robstad

86'

A. Stenseth← M. Mawa

90'

Nicholas Mickelson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetStart

Overview

62%Possession38%

23Total Shots13

11Corners5

15Fouls8

Shots

23Total Shots13

5On Target6

8Off Target3

10Blocked4

15Inside Box9

8Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

520Total Passes307

419Accurate Passes215

81%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls8

4Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0