Stromsgodset 1–1 Start: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Start

J. Glesnes 80'

K. Kabran 32'

8/19/2018

Eliteserien · Round 19Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Stromsgodset48%

×Draw23%

Start29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchStart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.36

Stromsgodset

1.82

Start

1.36

Stromsgodset creates 34% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 8 away

1.82

creates per match

0.90

1.83

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.82

Start

0.90

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.83

Start

1.82

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.50scores less

Start+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Start →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

71%

Stromsgodset or Start

77%

Draw or Start

52%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

26%

Start wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

84%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

54%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

27%

Start 1+ goals

74%

Start 2+ goals

39%

Start 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

63%

Start (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.83 · 38 matches

Start away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.82 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Start defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.82

Start attack 0.90 + Stromsgodset defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

48%

level

23%

Start scores more

29%

Stromsgodset at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

E. Andersen

Stromsgodset · M

8.2

Match Events

12'

31'

32'

45'

67'

M. Abdellaoue← Marcus Pedersen

71'

A. Pellegrino← K. Tokstad

73'

A. Sigurdarson← H. Shala

80'

J. Glesnes↳ T. Nguen

84'

K. Skaanes← A. Akinyemi

90+22'

H. Duman← E. Andersen

90'

H. Opdal← J. Deumeland

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetStart

Overview

70%Possession30%

16Total Shots9

9Corners2

11Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots9

3On Target2

9Off Target5

4Blocked2

8Inside Box5

8Outside Box4

Passing

70%Possession30%

582Total Passes245

493Accurate Passes158

85%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides5

Eliteserien: Stromsgodset 1–1 Start

Stromsgodset and Start drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on August 19, 2018.

Goals: K. Kabran (32'), J. Glesnes (80').

Stromsgodset controlled possession (70%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.

Stromsgodset vs Start — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Stromsgodset 1–1 Start