Start 1–1 Stromsgodset: Result & Stats

Start

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Stromsgodset

E. Børufsen 18'

Marcus Pedersen 52'

6/10/2018

Eliteserien · Round 13Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Start48%

×Draw24%

Stromsgodset28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StartExpected goals in this matchStromsgodset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.24

Start

1.71

Stromsgodset

1.24

Start creates 38% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 36 away

1.33

creates per match

1.06

1.42

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Start

1.33

Stromsgodset

1.06

allows per match

Start

1.42

Stromsgodset

2.08

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Start-0.33scores less

Stromsgodset+0.02on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start ↓

Stromsgodset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Start or draw

72%

Start or Stromsgodset

76%

Draw or Stromsgodset

52%

Winning margin

Start wins by 2+

26%

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Start 1+ goals

82%

Start 2+ goals

51%

Start 3+ goals

24%

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

71%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

35%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Start (draw refunded)

63%

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.42 · 6 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.08 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start attack 1.33 + Stromsgodset defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.71

Stromsgodset attack 1.06 + Start defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Start scores more

48%

level

24%

Stromsgodset scores more

28%

Start at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

E. Andersen

Stromsgodset · M

8.0

Match Events

18'

E. Børufsen↳ M. Bringaker

52'

Marcus Pedersen↳ T. Nguen

54'

Tokmac Chol Nguen

59'

A. Sigurdarson← M. Bringaker

79'

A. Pellegrino← Francisco Júnior

81'

Aron Sigurðarson

86'

Tokmac Chol Nguen

86'

Tokmac Chol Nguen

87'

N. Sandberg← K. Skaanes

90+2'

M. Abdellaoue← Marcus Pedersen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StartStromsgodset

Overview

32%Possession68%

4Total Shots24

1Corners9

14Fouls11

Shots

4Total Shots24

1On Target7

2Off Target9

1Blocked8

2Inside Box12

2Outside Box12

Passing

32%Possession68%

264Total Passes552

184Accurate Passes473

70%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides3

Eliteserien: Start 1–1 Stromsgodset

Start and Stromsgodset drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on June 10, 2018.

Goals: E. Børufsen (18'), Marcus Pedersen (52').

Stromsgodset controlled possession (68%) and registered 24 shots to 4.

The match was played at Sør Arena in Kristiansand.

Start vs Stromsgodset — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Start 1–1 Stromsgodset