Start 2–2 Stromsgodset: Result & Stats

Start

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Stromsgodset

E. Marković 73'

M. Bringaker 65'

H. Stengel 83'

L. Salvesen 45'

6/17/2020

Eliteserien · Round 1Sparebanken Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Start48%

×Draw24%

Stromsgodset28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StartExpected goals in this matchStromsgodset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.24

Start

1.71

Stromsgodset

1.24

Start creates 38% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 35 away

1.33

creates per match

1.06

1.42

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Start

1.33

Stromsgodset

1.06

allows per match

Start

1.42

Stromsgodset

2.09

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Start-0.33scores less

Stromsgodset+0.05on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start ↓

Stromsgodset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Start or draw

72%

Start or Stromsgodset

76%

Draw or Stromsgodset

52%

Winning margin

Start wins by 2+

26%

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Start 1+ goals

82%

Start 2+ goals

51%

Start 3+ goals

24%

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

71%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

35%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Start (draw refunded)

63%

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.42 · 6 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.09 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start attack 1.33 + Stromsgodset defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.71

Stromsgodset attack 1.06 + Start defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Start scores more

48%

level

24%

Stromsgodset scores more

28%

Start at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

E. Marković

Start · M

8.0

Match Events

43'

Jonathan Parr

45'

L. Salvesen↳ K. Tokstad

57'

E. Schulze← E. Segberg

62'

M. Mawa← J. Ikaunieks

65'

M. Bringaker↳ E. Schulze

67'

H. Robstad← K. Tønnessen

68'

J. Hove← I. Jack

73'

E. Marković↳ K. Kabran

83'

H. Stengel↳ L. Salvesen

84'

J. Jørgensen← E. Marković

84'

K. Skaanes← S. Skålevik

86'

M. Mølvadgaard← H. Stengel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StartStromsgodset

Overview

34%Possession66%

22Total Shots12

11Corners7

14Fouls14

Shots

22Total Shots12

7On Target5

6Off Target5

9Blocked2

18Inside Box8

4Outside Box4

Passing

34%Possession66%

210Total Passes438

136Accurate Passes343

65%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls14

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3

Eliteserien: Start 2–2 Stromsgodset

Start and Stromsgodset drew 2-2 in Eliteserien on June 17, 2020.

Goals: L. Salvesen (45'), M. Bringaker (65'), E. Marković (73'), H. Stengel (83').

Stromsgodset controlled possession (66%) and registered 12 shots to 22.

The match was played at Sparebanken Sør Arena in Kristiansand.

Start vs Stromsgodset — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Start 2–2 Stromsgodset