Stromsgodset 3–1 Molde: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Molde

M. Farji 69'

J. Bakke 3'

J. Taaje 2'

D. Daga 85'

8/31/2025

Eliteserien · Round 20Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Stromsgodset39%

×Draw24%

Molde37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchMolde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.54

Stromsgodset

1.59

Molde

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 24 away

1.82

creates per match

1.32

1.77

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.82

Molde

1.32

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.77

Molde

1.36

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.60scores less

Molde-0.03on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Molde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

63%

Stromsgodset or Molde

76%

Draw or Molde

61%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

19%

Molde wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

80%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

47%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

21%

Molde 1+ goals

79%

Molde 2+ goals

45%

Molde 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

51%

Molde (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.77 · 27 matches

Molde away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.36 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Molde defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.59

Molde attack 1.32 + Stromsgodset defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

39%

level

24%

Molde scores more

37%

Stromsgodset at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

J. Taaje

Stromsgodset · D

8.0

Match Events

2'

3'

24'

44'

51'

52'

52'

60'

M. Linnes← H. Stenevik

60'

O. Spiten-Nysaeter← C. Zady

61'

S. A. Marcello Silalahi← O. Enersen

61'

J. Abdullai← F. Gulbrandsen

69'

M. Farji↳ F. P. Vilaseca Ardraa

73'

S. Granaas← E. Hestad

74'

S. Westerlund← F. Dahl

74'

K. Krasniqi← J. Bakke

84'

D. Daga← M. Eikrem

85'

D. Daga↳ E. Breivik

87'

J. Ampofo← M. Farji

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetMolde

Overview

34%Possession66%

17Total Shots14

1.57Expected Goals (xG)1.03

2Corners6

16Fouls8

Shots

17Total Shots14

7On Target3

8Off Target5

2Blocked6

10Inside Box7

7Outside Box7

Passing

34%Possession66%

317Total Passes611

241Accurate Passes538

76%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls8

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Stromsgodset vs Molde

Stromsgodset beat Molde 3-1 in Eliteserien on August 31, 2025.

Goals: J. Taaje (2'), J. Bakke (3'), M. Farji (69'), D. Daga (85').

Molde controlled possession (66%) and registered 14 shots to 17.

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.

Stromsgodset vs Molde — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Stromsgodset vs Molde