Stromsgodset 1–0 Molde: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Molde

N. Möller 57'

12/1/2024

Eliteserien · Round 30Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Stromsgodset38%

×Draw24%

Molde38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchMolde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.57

Stromsgodset

1.58

Molde

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 25 away

1.82

creates per match

1.38

1.77

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.82

Molde

1.38

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.77

Molde

1.33

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.60scores less

Molde+0.02on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Molde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

62%

Stromsgodset or Molde

76%

Draw or Molde

62%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

19%

Molde wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

79%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

47%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

21%

Molde 1+ goals

79%

Molde 2+ goals

46%

Molde 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

50%

Molde (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.77 · 27 matches

Molde away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.33 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Molde defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.58

Molde attack 1.38 + Stromsgodset defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

38%

level

24%

Molde scores more

38%

Stromsgodset at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

P. Kristian Bråtveit

Stromsgodset · G

8.2

Match Events

48'

Bent Sormo

57'

N. Möller↳ H. Stengel

60'

M. Enggård← M. Kaasa

60'

H. Stenevik← M. Linnes

70'

M. Løvik← K. Haugen

70'

S. Granaas← E. Breivik

77'

E. Melkersen← J. Therkelsen

78'

F. Ihler← M. Bjørnbak

89'

S. Silalahi← Marko Farji

89'

M. Mehnert← N. Möller

90+5'

Samuel Silalahi

90+1'

Fredrik Kristensen Dahl

90+6'

J. Taaje← L. Tómasson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetMolde

Overview

46%Possession54%

13Total Shots12

1.75Expected Goals (xG)1.76

2Corners3

11Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots12

4On Target4

8Off Target4

1Blocked4

8Inside Box8

5Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

430Total Passes498

344Accurate Passes412

80%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls12

3Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1