Molde 4–1 Stromsgodset: Result & Stats

Molde

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Stromsgodset

M. Kaasa 51', 41'

F. Gulbrandsen 20'

C. Zady 11'

G. Wikheim 37'

7/19/2025

Eliteserien · Round 14Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Molde60%

×Draw21%

Stromsgodset19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoldeExpected goals in this matchStromsgodset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.08

Molde

2.07

Stromsgodset

1.08

Molde creates 92% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 24 away

1.98

creates per match

0.96

1.20

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Molde

1.98

Stromsgodset

0.96

allows per match

Molde

1.20

Stromsgodset

2.16

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Molde+0.20scores more

Stromsgodset+0.29scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde ↓

Stromsgodset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Molde or draw

81%

Molde or Stromsgodset

79%

Draw or Stromsgodset

40%

Winning margin

Molde wins by 2+

37%

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Molde 1+ goals

87%

Molde 2+ goals

61%

Molde 3+ goals

34%

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

66%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

29%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Molde (draw refunded)

76%

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.20 · 22 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.16 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde attack 1.98 + Stromsgodset defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.07

Stromsgodset attack 0.96 + Molde defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Molde scores more

60%

level

21%

Stromsgodset scores more

19%

Molde at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

M. Kaasa

Molde · M

9.2

Match Events

11'

C. Zady↳ E. Hestad

20'

F. Gulbrandsen↳ M. Linnes

37'

41'

46'

51'

62'

A. Heredia-Randen← J. Bakke

63'

S. A. Marcello Silalahi← G. Wikheim

63'

J. Ampofo← A. Conteh

72'

M. Eikrem← M. Daehli

72'

M. Enggaard← M. Kaasa

72'

H. Stenevik← M. Linnes

72'

S. Granaas← E. Hestad

82'

J. Abdullai← F. Gulbrandsen

86'

Samukelo Kabini

89'

Emil Breivik

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MoldeStromsgodset

Overview

62%Possession38%

13Total Shots5

2.14Expected Goals (xG)0.54

6Corners5

9Fouls5

Shots

13Total Shots5

4On Target2

6Off Target2

3Blocked1

10Inside Box4

3Outside Box1

Passing

62%Possession38%

706Total Passes418

657Accurate Passes363

93%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

9Fouls5

2Yellow Cards0

Eliteserien: Molde 4–1 Stromsgodset

Molde beat Stromsgodset 4-1 in Eliteserien on July 19, 2025.

Goals: C. Zady (11'), F. Gulbrandsen (20'), G. Wikheim (37'), M. Kaasa (41', 51').

Molde controlled possession (62%) and registered 13 shots to 5.

The match was played at Aker Stadion in Molde.

Molde vs Stromsgodset — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Molde 4–1 Stromsgodset