Stromsgodset 1–1 Molde: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Molde

E. Melkersen 8'

M. Eikrem 39'

9/24/2023

Eliteserien · Round 23Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Stromsgodset38%

×Draw24%

Molde38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchMolde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.57

Stromsgodset

1.58

Molde

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 25 away

1.82

creates per match

1.38

1.77

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.82

Molde

1.38

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.77

Molde

1.33

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.60scores less

Molde+0.02on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Molde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

62%

Stromsgodset or Molde

76%

Draw or Molde

62%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

19%

Molde wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

79%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

47%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

21%

Molde 1+ goals

79%

Molde 2+ goals

46%

Molde 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

50%

Molde (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.77 · 27 matches

Molde away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.33 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Molde defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.58

Molde attack 1.38 + Stromsgodset defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

38%

level

24%

Molde scores more

38%

Stromsgodset at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Eikrem

Molde · F

7.9

Match Events

8'

E. Melkersen↳ T. Grøgaard

39'

M. Eikrem

46'

M. Løvik← M. Linnes

46'

V. Berisha← F. Gulbrandsen

74'

J. Ekeland← H. Stenevik

74'

K. Krasniqi← E. Danso

74'

S. Hanssen← A. Leifsson

74'

M. Kaasa← E. Hestad

74'

E. Kitolano← M. Eikrem

82'

J. Therkelsen← E. Andersen

83'

Kreshnik Krasniqi

83'

M. Mehnert← E. Melkersen

84'

M. Grødem← K. Eriksen

90+4'

Herman Stengel

90+4'

Mathias Fjortoft Lovik

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetMolde

Overview

37%Possession63%

8Total Shots17

0.73Expected Goals (xG)1.60

5Corners3

13Fouls7

Shots

8Total Shots17

2On Target5

1Off Target8

5Blocked4

6Inside Box8

2Outside Box9

Passing

37%Possession63%

355Total Passes620

251Accurate Passes527

71%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Stromsgodset vs Molde

Stromsgodset and Molde drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on September 24, 2023.

Goals: E. Melkersen (8'), M. Eikrem (39').

Molde controlled possession (63%) and registered 17 shots to 8.

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.

Stromsgodset vs Molde — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Stromsgodset vs Molde