Stromsgodset 1–2 Molde: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Molde

T. Nguen 21'

E. Hestad 17'

E. Håland 11'

9/23/2018

Eliteserien · Round 23Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

Stromsgodset37%

×Draw23%

Molde40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchMolde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.65

Stromsgodset

1.57

Molde

1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.82

creates per match

1.47

1.83

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.82

Molde

1.47

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.83

Molde

1.32

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.50scores less

Molde+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Molde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

60%

Stromsgodset or Molde

77%

Draw or Molde

63%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

18%

Molde wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

79%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

46%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

21%

Molde 1+ goals

81%

Molde 2+ goals

49%

Molde 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

48%

Molde (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.83 · 38 matches

Molde away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.32 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Molde defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.57

Molde attack 1.47 + Stromsgodset defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

37%

level

23%

Molde scores more

40%

Molde at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

E. Hussain

Molde · M

7.5

Match Events

11'

E. Håland↳ E. Hussain

17'

E. Hestad↳ P. Cibicki

18'

Martin Ovenstad

21'

T. Nguen

51'

Babacar Sarr

64'

F. Aursnes← P. Cibicki

72'

H. Stengel← M. Ovenstad

73'

Francisco Júnior← H. Hauger

80'

S. Gregersen← E. Håland

82'

M. Abdellaoue← K. Tokstad

83'

M. Mostrøm← M. Eikrem

90'

Marcus Pedersen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetMolde

Overview

49%Possession51%

16Total Shots13

7Corners2

15Fouls12

Shots

16Total Shots13

5On Target7

3Off Target4

8Blocked2

5Inside Box6

11Outside Box7

Passing

49%Possession51%

405Total Passes434

334Accurate Passes360

82%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0

Eliteserien: Stromsgodset 1–2 Molde

Molde beat Stromsgodset 2-1 in Eliteserien on September 23, 2018.

Goals: E. Håland (11'), E. Hestad (17'), T. Nguen (21').

Molde controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 16.

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.

Stromsgodset vs Molde — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Stromsgodset 1–2 Molde