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Stromsgodset vs KFUM Oslo — Eliteserien 2026

Stromsgodset
Stromsgodset
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
KFUM Oslo
KFUM Oslo
F. Dahl 90'
B. Kristensen 90'
10/5/2025EliteserienEliteserien · Round 24Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Stromsgodset40%
×Draw25%
KFUM Oslo36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stromsgodset
1.50
KFUM Oslo
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 28 away

creates per match

Stromsgodset
1.85
KFUM Oslo
1.09

allows per match

Stromsgodset
1.72
KFUM Oslo
1.14

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.56scores less
KFUM Oslo+0.05on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

KFUM Oslo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw
64%
Stromsgodset or KFUM Oslo
75%
Draw or KFUM Oslo
60%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+
19%
KFUM Oslo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals
78%
Stromsgodset 2+ goals
44%
Stromsgodset 3+ goals
19%
KFUM Oslo 1+ goals
76%
KFUM Oslo 2+ goals
41%
KFUM Oslo 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)
53%
KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.72 · 35 matches

KFUM Oslo away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.14 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.85 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.50

KFUM Oslo attack 1.09 + Stromsgodset defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stromsgodset scores more
40%
level
25%
KFUM Oslo scores more
36%

Stromsgodset at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
S. HestnesKFUM OsloKFUM Oslo · M
7.7

Match Events

32'
A. Conteh← O. Enersen
64'
M. Ndiaye← S. Sandal
67'
Moussa Njie
74'
Johan Johanessen Bakke
75'
T. Haltvik← M. Njie
75'
B. Kristensen← B. Njie
79'
M. Mehnert← J. Bakke
82'
Mame Ndiaye
86'
Simen Hestnes
90'
D. Schneider← D. Hickson
90'
B. Kristensen↳ S. Hestnes
90'
F. Dahl

Possession

Stromsgodset: 47KFUM: 5347%Stromsgodset

Shots

Stromsgodset: 11KFUM: 1311Stromsgodset

Pass accuracy

Stromsgodset: 82KFUM: 8449%Stromsgodset

Statistics

StromsgodsetKFUM
Overview
47%Possession53%
11Total Shots13
0.94Expected Goals (xG)1.21
3Corners7
14Fouls8
Shots
11Total Shots13
4On Target5
6Off Target6
1Blocked2
8Inside Box10
3Outside Box3
Passing
47%Possession53%
445Total Passes518
365Accurate Passes436
82%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls8
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Stromsgodset vs KFUM Oslo

Stromsgodset and KFUM Oslo drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on October 5, 2025.

Goals: B. Kristensen (90'), F. Dahl (90').

KFUM Oslo controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.