KFUM Oslo 1–3 Stromsgodset: Result & Stats

KFUM Oslo

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Stromsgodset

S. Hestnes 66'

H. Stengel 85', 42'

E. Andersen 7'

4/16/2024

Eliteserien · Round 3Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

KFUM Oslo53%

×Draw23%

Stromsgodset23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KFUM OsloExpected goals in this matchStromsgodset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.08

KFUM Oslo

1.77

Stromsgodset

1.08

KFUM Oslo creates 64% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 34 away

1.42

creates per match

1.08

1.07

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

KFUM Oslo

1.42

Stromsgodset

1.08

allows per match

KFUM Oslo

1.07

Stromsgodset

2.13

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

KFUM Oslo-0.11scores less

Stromsgodset+0.07on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM Oslo ↓

Stromsgodset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

KFUM Oslo or draw

77%

KFUM Oslo or Stromsgodset

77%

Draw or Stromsgodset

47%

Winning margin

KFUM Oslo wins by 2+

30%

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

KFUM Oslo 1+ goals

83%

KFUM Oslo 2+ goals

53%

KFUM Oslo 3+ goals

26%

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

66%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

29%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)

70%

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM Oslo at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.07 · 32 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.13 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM Oslo attack 1.42 + Stromsgodset defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.77

Stromsgodset attack 1.08 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

KFUM Oslo scores more

53%

level

23%

Stromsgodset scores more

23%

KFUM Oslo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "KFUM Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

H. Stengel

Stromsgodset · M

9.2

Match Events

7'

E. Andersen↳ Marko Farji

39'

Kreshnik Krasniqi

42'

H. Stengel↳ L. Tómasson

61'

S. Sandal← R. Svindland

61'

M. Ndiaye← J. Nuñez

61'

D. Hickson← H. Aleesami

64'

J. Therkelsen← E. Melkersen

66'

S. Hestnes

81'

Moussa Njie← P. Dahl

81'

M. Mehnert← Marko Farji

81'

D. Gaye← L. Vilsvik

85'

H. Stengel

87'

T. Haltvik← Momodou Njie

90+4'

A. Heredia-Randen← K. Krasniqi

90+4'

F. Ardraa← E. Andersen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KFUMStromsgodset

Overview

61%Possession39%

20Total Shots14

2.29Expected Goals (xG)2.32

13Corners3

8Fouls7

Shots

20Total Shots14

6On Target7

8Off Target3

6Blocked4

9Inside Box8

11Outside Box6

Passing

61%Possession39%

617Total Passes398

539Accurate Passes313

87%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls7

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1

Match Recap: KFUM Oslo vs Stromsgodset

Stromsgodset beat KFUM Oslo 3-1 in Eliteserien on April 16, 2024.

Goals: E. Andersen (7'), H. Stengel (42', 85'), S. Hestnes (66').

KFUM Oslo controlled possession (61%) and registered 20 shots to 14.

The match was played at Intility Arena in Oslo.

KFUM Oslo vs Stromsgodset — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: KFUM Oslo vs Stromsgodset