Stomil Olsztyn 2–1 SKRA Częstochowa: Result & Stats

Stomil Olsztyn

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

SKRA Częstochowa

11/4/2023

II Liga - East · Round 16Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn49%

×Draw25%

SKRA Częstochowa26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stomil OlsztynExpected goals in this matchSKRA Częstochowa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.06

Stomil Olsztyn

1.57

SKRA Częstochowa

1.06

Stomil Olsztyn creates 48% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 61 away

1.49

creates per match

1.05

1.06

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn

1.49

SKRA Częstochowa

1.05

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn

1.06

SKRA Częstochowa

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

SKRA Częstochowa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw

74%

Stomil Olsztyn or SKRA Częstochowa

75%

Draw or SKRA Częstochowa

51%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+

25%

SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals

79%

Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals

46%

Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals

21%

SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals

65%

SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals

29%

SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)

66%

SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.06 · 35 matches

SKRA Częstochowa away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.49 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.57

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.05 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more

49%

level

25%

SKRA Częstochowa scores more

26%

Stomil Olsztyn at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Stomil Olsztyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff