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SKRA Częstochowa vs Stomil Olsztyn — II Liga - East 2019

SKRA Częstochowa
SKRA Częstochowa
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
5/19/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 33Stadion ul. Loretańska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

SKRA Częstochowa43%
×Draw29%
Stomil Olsztyn28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SKRA Częstochowa
1.25
Stomil Olsztyn
0.94

SKRA Częstochowa creates 33% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 34 away

creates per match

SKRA Częstochowa
1.37
Stomil Olsztyn
0.94

allows per match

SKRA Częstochowa
0.95
Stomil Olsztyn
1.12

finishing

SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKRA Częstochowa ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

SKRA Częstochowa or draw
72%
SKRA Częstochowa or Stomil Olsztyn
71%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
57%

Winning margin

SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+
19%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals
71%
SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals
36%
SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals
13%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
61%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
24%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)
61%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKRA Częstochowa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 60 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.37 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.25

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.94 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SKRA Częstochowa scores more
43%
level
29%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
28%

SKRA Częstochowa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SKRA Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SKRA Częstochowa vs Stomil Olsztyn

SKRA Częstochowa and Stomil Olsztyn drew 2-2 in II Liga - East on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Loretańska in Częstochowa.