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SKRA Częstochowa vs Stomil Olsztyn — I Liga 2018

SKRA Częstochowa
SKRA Częstochowa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
5/6/2022I LigaI Liga · Round 32Stadion GKS-u

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

SKRA Częstochowa33%
×Draw29%
Stomil Olsztyn38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SKRA Częstochowa
1.04
Stomil Olsztyn
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

creates per match

SKRA Częstochowa
0.74
Stomil Olsztyn
0.88

allows per match

SKRA Częstochowa
1.38
Stomil Olsztyn
1.35

finishing

SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKRA Częstochowa ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

SKRA Częstochowa or draw
62%
SKRA Częstochowa or Stomil Olsztyn
71%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
67%

Winning margin

SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+
13%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals
65%
SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals
28%
SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals
9%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
68%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
31%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)
47%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKRA Częstochowa at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKRA Częstochowa attack 0.74 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.04

Stomil Olsztyn attack 0.88 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

SKRA Częstochowa scores more
33%
level
29%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
38%

Stomil Olsztyn at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stomil Olsztyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: SKRA Częstochowa 0–0 Stomil Olsztyn

SKRA Częstochowa and Stomil Olsztyn drew 0-0 in I Liga on May 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion GKS-u in Bełchatów.