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Stomil Olsztyn vs SKRA Częstochowa — I Liga 2018

Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
SKRA Częstochowa
SKRA Częstochowa
10/29/2021I LigaI Liga · Round 15Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn40%
×Draw29%
SKRA Częstochowa31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stomil Olsztyn
1.17
SKRA Częstochowa
0.98

Stomil Olsztyn creates 19% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.04
SKRA Częstochowa
0.65

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.31
SKRA Częstochowa
1.29

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par
SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

SKRA Częstochowa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw
69%
Stomil Olsztyn or SKRA Częstochowa
71%
Draw or SKRA Częstochowa
60%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
17%
SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
69%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
33%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
11%
SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals
62%
SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals
26%
SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
57%
SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

SKRA Częstochowa away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.04 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

SKRA Częstochowa attack 0.65 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more
40%
level
29%
SKRA Częstochowa scores more
31%

Stomil Olsztyn at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stomil Olsztyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Stomil Olsztyn 0–1 SKRA Częstochowa

SKRA Częstochowa beat Stomil Olsztyn 1-0 in I Liga on October 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Olsztyn.