Stoke City 0–0 Preston: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Preston

12/26/2025

Championship · Round 23Bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Stoke City48%

×Draw26%

Preston26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchPreston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.04

Stoke City

1.50

Preston

1.04

Stoke City creates 44% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 37 away

1.41

creates per match

1.01

1.07

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Stoke City

1.41

Preston

1.01

allows per match

Stoke City

1.07

Preston

1.58

+0.42scores more than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Stoke City+0.42scores more

Preston+0.04on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Preston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

74%

Stoke City or Preston

74%

Draw or Preston

52%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

24%

Preston wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

78%

Stoke City 2+ goals

44%

Stoke City 3+ goals

19%

Preston 1+ goals

65%

Preston 2+ goals

28%

Preston 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

65%

Preston (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.07 · 12 matches

Preston away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.58 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.41 + Preston defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.50

Preston attack 1.01 + Stoke City defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stoke City scores more

48%

level

26%

Preston scores more

26%

Stoke City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

V. Johansson

Stoke City · G

8.5

Match Events

16'

Pol Valentín

40'

B. Gibson← A. Cresswell

54'

Ben Wilmot

62'

Alistair McCann

67'

J. Thompson← A. McCann

72'

A. Devine← D. Jebbison

72'

M. Frokjaer-Jensen← H. Armstrong

77'

R. Bozenik← D. Mubama

84'

86'

90+6'

90+1'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokePreston

Overview

58%Possession42%

14Total Shots8

1.06Expected Goals (xG)0.59

10Corners2

8Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots8

3On Target4

6Off Target2

5Blocked2

8Inside Box4

6Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

426Total Passes313

353Accurate Passes235

83%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

0.97Goals Prevented0.97

Discipline

8Fouls12

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Stoke City vs Preston

Stoke City and Preston drew 0-0 in Championship on December 26, 2025.

Stoke City controlled possession (58%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Bet365 Stadium in Stoke on Trent.

Stoke City vs Preston — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Stoke City vs Preston