Preston 3–1 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Preston

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Stoke City

A. Devine 60', 15'

M. Osmajic 57'

S. Thomas 4'

3/20/2026

Championship · Round 39Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 47+ matches

Preston44%

×Draw27%

Stoke City29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.10

Preston

1.41

Stoke City

1.10

Preston creates 28% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 47 away

1.15

creates per match

1.00

1.20

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Preston

1.15

Stoke City

1.00

allows per match

Preston

1.20

Stoke City

1.67

+0.04on par

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

Preston+0.04on par

Stoke City-0.28scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Preston or draw

71%

Preston or Stoke City

73%

Draw or Stoke City

56%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

21%

Stoke City wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

76%

Preston 2+ goals

41%

Preston 3+ goals

17%

Stoke City 1+ goals

67%

Stoke City 2+ goals

30%

Stoke City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

60%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.20 · 58 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.15 + Stoke City defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.41

Stoke City attack 1.00 + Preston defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Preston scores more

44%

level

27%

Stoke City scores more

29%

Preston at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

A. Devine

Preston · M

9.0

Match Events

4'

S. Thomas↳ J. Tchamadeu

15'

26'

34'

39'

46'

S. Gallagher← M. Smit

46'

J. Rak-Sakyi← J. Tchamadeu

48'

J. Bae← S. N'Zonzi

57'

M. Osmajic↳ L. Dobbin

60'

A. Devine↳ M. Osmajic

63'

T. Small← A. Vukcevic

65'

D. Mubama← M. Manhoef

76'

B. Potts← A. Moran

77'

D. Jebbison← M. Osmajic

84'

O. Offiah← P. Valentin

84'

M. Smith← L. Dobbin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonStoke

Overview

46%Possession54%

13Total Shots13

2.81Expected Goals (xG)0.99

7Corners9

12Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots13

3On Target2

5Off Target3

5Blocked8

12Inside Box5

1Outside Box8

Passing

46%Possession54%

339Total Passes402

221Accurate Passes275

65%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

-2.06Goals Prevented-2.06

Discipline

12Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0