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Stoke City vs Preston — Championship 2025

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Preston
Preston
11/26/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 17bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Stoke City46%
×Draw27%
Preston27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.43
Preston
1.04

Stoke City creates 38% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 37 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.28
Preston
1.01

allows per match

Stoke City
1.07
Preston
1.58

finishing

Stoke City+0.17scores more
Preston+0.04on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Preston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
73%
Stoke City or Preston
73%
Draw or Preston
54%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
22%
Preston wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
76%
Stoke City 2+ goals
42%
Stoke City 3+ goals
17%
Preston 1+ goals
65%
Preston 2+ goals
28%
Preston 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
63%
Preston (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.07 · 20 matches

Preston away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.58 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.28 + Preston defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.43

Preston attack 1.01 + Stoke City defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stoke City scores more
46%
level
27%
Preston scores more
27%

Stoke City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Stoke City 0–0 Preston

Stoke City and Preston drew 0-0 in Championship on November 26, 2024.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.