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Preston vs Stoke City — Championship 2025

Preston
Preston
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Stoke City
Stoke City
K. Kesler-Hayden 10'
L. Baker 75' (pen)
4/5/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 40Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Preston38%
×Draw28%
Stoke City34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.18
Stoke City
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 11 away

creates per match

Preston
1.06
Stoke City
0.98

allows per match

Preston
1.22
Stoke City
1.30

finishing

Preston+0.16scores more
Stoke City-0.62scores less

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Preston or draw
66%
Preston or Stoke City
72%
Draw or Stoke City
62%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
16%
Stoke City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
69%
Preston 2+ goals
33%
Preston 3+ goals
12%
Stoke City 1+ goals
67%
Stoke City 2+ goals
30%
Stoke City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
53%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.22 · 37 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.30 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.06 + Stoke City defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.18

Stoke City attack 0.98 + Preston defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Preston scores more
38%
level
28%
Stoke City scores more
34%

Preston at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
J. StoreyPrestonPreston · D
7.6

Match Events

10'
K. Kesler-Hayden↳ S. Greenwood
15'
Robbie Brady
39'
Milutin Osmajić
55'
Sam Gallagher
56'
R. Ledson← S. Þórðarson
56'
M. Frøkjær-Jensen← E. Riis
62'
Ali Al Hamadi← Bae Jun-Ho
68'
W. Keane← S. Greenwood
71'
L. Koumas← S. Gallagher
74'
Liam Lindsay
75'
L. BakerPenalty
76'
Lewis Baker
81'
Ryan Ledson
81'
Jordan Thompson
90+1'
L. Gooch← M. Manhoef
90+1'
B. Pearson← W. Burger

Possession

46%Preston

Shots

6Preston

Pass accuracy

47%Preston

Statistics

PrestonStoke
Overview
46%Possession54%
6Total Shots15
0.53Expected Goals (xG)2.42
1Corners9
9Fouls15
Shots
6Total Shots15
2On Target5
3Off Target7
1Blocked3
4Inside Box9
2Outside Box6
Passing
46%Possession54%
301Total Passes341
191Accurate Passes243
63%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
0.17Goals Prevented0.17
Discipline
9Fouls15
4Yellow Cards3
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Preston vs Stoke City

Preston and Stoke City drew 1-1 in Championship on April 5, 2025.

Goals: K. Kesler-Hayden (10'), L. Baker (75' pen).

Stoke City controlled possession (54%) and registered 15 shots to 6.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.