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Stoke City vs Preston — Championship 2018

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Preston
Preston
W. Keane 57', 51' (pen)
9/2/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 5bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 56+ matches

Stoke City43%
×Draw27%
Preston30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.39
Preston
1.12

Stoke City creates 24% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 59 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.19
Preston
1.00

allows per match

Stoke City
1.24
Preston
1.59

finishing

Stoke City+0.13scores more
Preston+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Preston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
70%
Stoke City or Preston
73%
Draw or Preston
57%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
20%
Preston wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
75%
Stoke City 2+ goals
40%
Stoke City 3+ goals
16%
Preston 1+ goals
67%
Preston 2+ goals
31%
Preston 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
59%
Preston (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.24 · 56 matches

Preston away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.59 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.19 + Preston defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.39

Preston attack 1.00 + Stoke City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stoke City scores more
43%
level
27%
Preston scores more
30%

Stoke City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
W. KeanePrestonPreston · F
8.3

Match Events

1'
Ben Pearson
25'
Liam Lindsay
45+1'
Mads Frøkjær-Jensen
46'
D. Holmes← M. Frøkjær-Jensen
51'
W. KeanePenalty
57'
W. Keane↳ D. Holmes
61'
M. Rose← L. McNally
61'
L. Gooch← K. Hoever
61'
D. Johnson← B. Pearson
63'
Enda Stevens
63'
Duane Holmes
67'
Alan Browne
71'
Bae Jun-Ho← M. Léris
83'
G. Cunningham← J. Whatmough
88'
B. Woodburn← W. Keane
90+6'
Josh Laurent
90'
N. Jojić← W. Burger

Possession

70%Stoke

Shots

18Stoke

Pass accuracy

57%Stoke

Statistics

StokePreston
Overview
70%Possession30%
18Total Shots7
2.13Expected Goals (xG)2.02
9Corners0
15Fouls17
Shots
18Total Shots7
1On Target3
7Off Target2
10Blocked2
12Inside Box6
6Outside Box1
Passing
70%Possession30%
481Total Passes226
381Accurate Passes135
79%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls17
3Yellow Cards4
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Stoke City vs Preston

Preston beat Stoke City 2-0 in Championship on September 2, 2023.

Goals: W. Keane (51' pen, 57').

Stoke City controlled possession (70%) and registered 18 shots to 7.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.