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Stoke City vs Bristol City — Championship 2025

Stoke City
Stoke City
Preview
14:00
Bristol City
Bristol City
10/24/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 12Bet365 Stadium
42%
Stoke City
model favours
42%26%32%

Bristol City score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Stoke City42%
×Draw26%
Bristol City32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.40
Bristol City
1.18

Stoke City creates 19% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 27 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.40
Bristol City
1.07

allows per match

Stoke City
1.28
Bristol City
1.39

finishing

Stoke City+1.60scores more
Bristol City-0.07on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
68%
Stoke City or Bristol City
74%
Draw or Bristol City
58%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
20%
Bristol City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
75%
Stoke City 2+ goals
41%
Stoke City 3+ goals
17%
Bristol City 1+ goals
69%
Bristol City 2+ goals
33%
Bristol City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
57%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.28 · 5 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.39 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.40 + Bristol City defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Bristol City attack 1.07 + Stoke City defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stoke City scores more
42%
level
26%
Bristol City scores more
32%

Stoke City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Stoke City raise their game against the top half — 33% wins vs the upper half, only 32% vs the lower
  • Stoke City outscore their xG (1.9 vs 1.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Stoke City
Balanced
Bristol City
Balanced
52%Possession48%
78%Pass accuracy77%
10.9Shots11.4
1.16xGBiggest gap1.05
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Stoke CityBristol City

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
City
LLLLL
City
WLDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stoke City face Bristol City (Championship)

Championship returns with Stoke City hosting Bristol City. Match starts October 24, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Stoke City host Bristol City at Bet365 Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.