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Bristol City vs Stoke City — Championship 2018

Bristol City
Bristol City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stoke City
Stoke City
5/2/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 46Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 47+ matches

Bristol City46%
×Draw26%
Stoke City28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol City
1.49
Stoke City
1.11

Bristol City creates 34% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 47 away

creates per match

Bristol City
1.31
Stoke City
1.00

allows per match

Bristol City
1.23
Stoke City
1.67

finishing

Bristol City+0.16scores more
Stoke City-0.28scores less

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw
72%
Bristol City or Stoke City
74%
Draw or Stoke City
54%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+
23%
Stoke City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals
77%
Bristol City 2+ goals
44%
Bristol City 3+ goals
19%
Stoke City 1+ goals
67%
Stoke City 2+ goals
30%
Stoke City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)
62%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 58 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.31 + Stoke City defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.49

Stoke City attack 1.00 + Bristol City defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bristol City scores more
46%
level
26%
Stoke City scores more
28%

Bristol City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bristol City vs Stoke City

Bristol City beat Stoke City 2-0 in Championship on May 2, 2026.

The match was played at Ashton Gate Stadium in Bristol.