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Stoke City vs Bristol City — Championship 2025

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Bristol City
Bristol City
A. Moran 14'
L. Koumas 2'
N. Wells 52', 50'
10/22/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 11bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Stoke City41%
×Draw27%
Bristol City31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.31
Bristol City
1.10

Stoke City creates 19% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 41 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.25
Bristol City
1.07

allows per match

Stoke City
1.14
Bristol City
1.36

finishing

Stoke City+0.23scores more
Bristol City+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
69%
Stoke City or Bristol City
73%
Draw or Bristol City
59%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
19%
Bristol City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
73%
Stoke City 2+ goals
38%
Stoke City 3+ goals
14%
Bristol City 1+ goals
67%
Bristol City 2+ goals
30%
Bristol City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
57%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.36 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.25 + Bristol City defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bristol City attack 1.07 + Stoke City defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stoke City scores more
41%
level
27%
Bristol City scores more
31%

Stoke City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
N. WellsBristol CityBristol City · F
9.0

Match Events

2'
L. Koumas↳ T. Cannon
14'
A. Moran↳ L. Koumas
45+1'
Jun-Ho Bae
46'
G. Earthy← A. Mehmeti
50'
N. Wells
51'
Joe Williams
52'
N. Wells
64'
J. Tchamadeu← Bae Jun-Ho
64'
E. Stevens← E. Bocat
71'
N. Ennis← L. Koumas
74'
Andrew Moran
79'
S. Armstrong← N. Wells
88'
André Vidigal← M. Manhoef
89'
Y. Hirakawa← M. Sykes
90+3'
Jordan Thompson

Possession

51%Stoke

Shots

10Stoke

Pass accuracy

50%Stoke

Statistics

StokeBristol
Overview
51%Possession49%
10Total Shots28
0.77Expected Goals (xG)2.51
6Corners13
10Fouls5
Shots
10Total Shots28
6On Target10
3Off Target10
1Blocked8
9Inside Box24
1Outside Box4
Passing
51%Possession49%
434Total Passes401
324Accurate Passes301
75%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
8Saves4
-0.11Goals Prevented-0.11
Discipline
10Fouls5
3Yellow Cards1
2Offsides5

Match Recap: Stoke City vs Bristol City

Stoke City and Bristol City drew 2-2 in Championship on October 22, 2024.

Goals: L. Koumas (2'), A. Moran (14'), N. Wells (50', 52').

Stoke City controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 28.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.