Bristol City 2–0 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Stoke City

A. Mehmeti 73', 11'

2/12/2025

Championship · Round 32Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Bristol City41%

×Draw26%

Stoke City33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.20

Bristol City

1.37

Stoke City

1.20

Bristol City creates 14% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 20 away

1.35

creates per match

1.06

1.33

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Bristol City

1.35

Stoke City

1.06

allows per match

Bristol City

1.33

Stoke City

1.39

+0.08on par

finishing

-0.46scores less than expected

finishing

Bristol City+0.08on par

Stoke City-0.46scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

67%

Bristol City or Stoke City

74%

Draw or Stoke City

59%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

19%

Stoke City wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

75%

Bristol City 2+ goals

40%

Bristol City 3+ goals

16%

Stoke City 1+ goals

70%

Stoke City 2+ goals

34%

Stoke City 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

55%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.33 · 44 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.39 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.35 + Stoke City defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.37

Stoke City attack 1.06 + Bristol City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bristol City scores more

41%

level

26%

Stoke City scores more

33%

Bristol City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Mehmeti

Bristol City · F

8.7

Match Events

11'

A. Mehmeti↳ M. Sykes

24'

Michael Rose

40'

Haydon Roberts

46'

J. Tchamadeu← T. Seko

53'

Ben Gibson

61'

N. Wells← S. Armstrong

61'

Y. Hirakawa← M. Sykes

61'

67'

67'

73'

76'

E. Tezgel← Ali Al Hamadi

81'

M. McGuane← M. Bird

87'

G. Tanner← R. McCrorie

87'

B. Pearson← L. Baker

90+2'

Marcus McGuane

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolStoke

Overview

42%Possession58%

10Total Shots5

1.44Expected Goals (xG)0.36

2Corners1

12Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots5

6On Target0

3Off Target4

1Blocked1

9Inside Box4

1Outside Box1

Passing

42%Possession58%

370Total Passes515

288Accurate Passes425

78%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

1.43Goals Prevented1.43

Discipline

12Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides5