Stoke City 4–0 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Bristol City

M. Manhoef 49', 45+2'

T. Campbell 45'

L. Cundle 25'

5/4/2024

Championship · Round 46bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Stoke City41%

×Draw27%

Bristol City32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.13

Stoke City

1.31

Bristol City

1.13

Stoke City creates 16% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 45 away

1.26

creates per match

1.11

1.14

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Stoke City

1.26

Bristol City

1.11

allows per match

Stoke City

1.14

Bristol City

1.35

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Stoke City+0.28scores more

Bristol City-0.02on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

68%

Stoke City or Bristol City

73%

Draw or Bristol City

59%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

18%

Bristol City wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

73%

Stoke City 2+ goals

38%

Stoke City 3+ goals

14%

Bristol City 1+ goals

68%

Bristol City 2+ goals

31%

Bristol City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

56%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.14 · 24 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.35 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.26 + Bristol City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bristol City attack 1.11 + Stoke City defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stoke City scores more

41%

level

27%

Bristol City scores more

32%

Stoke City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

L. Cundle

Stoke City · M

9.3

Match Events

25'

L. Cundle

45'

T. Campbell↳ L. Cundle

45+2'

M. Manhoef↳ K. Hoever

49'

M. Manhoef↳ L. Cundle

57'

N. Wells← T. Conway

57'

Z. Vyner← R. McCrorie

57'

H. Cornick← M. Sykes

57'

T. Gardner-Hickman← J. Williams

70'

N. Lowe← T. Campbell

75'

S. Sidibe← J. Laurent

75'

J. Tchamadeu← K. Hoever

75'

W. Burger← J. Thompson

88'

M. Léris← M. Manhoef

90'

A. King← S. Twine

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeBristol

Overview

57%Possession43%

20Total Shots7

1.85Expected Goals (xG)1.05

5Corners6

11Fouls5

Shots

20Total Shots7

7On Target2

10Off Target1

3Blocked4

13Inside Box5

7Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

585Total Passes437

477Accurate Passes334

82%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls5

3Offsides5