Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stoke City vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Stoke City
Stoke City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Bristol City
Bristol City
N. Powell 36'
A. Mehmeti 85'
Z. Vyner 72'
4/7/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 40bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 55+ matches

Stoke City39%
×Draw28%
Bristol City33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
1.25
Bristol City
1.13

Stoke City creates 11% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 60 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.17
Bristol City
1.04

allows per match

Stoke City
1.22
Bristol City
1.33

finishing

Stoke City+0.18scores more
Bristol City-0.06on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
67%
Stoke City or Bristol City
72%
Draw or Bristol City
61%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
17%
Bristol City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
71%
Stoke City 2+ goals
36%
Stoke City 3+ goals
13%
Bristol City 1+ goals
68%
Bristol City 2+ goals
31%
Bristol City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
54%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.22 · 55 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.17 + Bristol City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bristol City attack 1.04 + Stoke City defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stoke City scores more
39%
level
28%
Bristol City scores more
33%

Stoke City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
Z. VynerBristol CityBristol City · D
7.7

Match Events

21'
A. King← O. Taylor-Clarke
36'
N. Powell↳ T. Campbell
46'
H. Cornick← T. Conway
68'
B. Celina← N. Powell
71'
Josh Laurent
71'
L. Baker← W. Smallbone
72'
M. Fox← K. Hoever
72'
Z. Vyner↳ S. Bell
81'
A. Mehmeti← S. Bell
85'
A. Mehmeti↳ N. Wells
88'
J. Tymon← P. Jagielka

Possession

61%Stoke

Shots

8Stoke

Pass accuracy

54%Stoke

Statistics

StokeBristol
Overview
61%Possession39%
8Total Shots5
7Corners4
11Fouls6
Shots
8Total Shots5
5On Target3
2Off Target2
1Blocked0
6Inside Box4
2Outside Box1
Passing
61%Possession39%
544Total Passes347
415Accurate Passes230
76%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls6
1Yellow Cards0
0Offsides3

Championship: Stoke City 1–2 Bristol City

Bristol City beat Stoke City 2-1 in Championship on April 7, 2023.

Goals: N. Powell (36'), Z. Vyner (72'), A. Mehmeti (85').

Stoke City controlled possession (61%) and registered 8 shots to 5.

The match was played at bet365 Stadium in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.