Stoke City 1–2 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Bristol City

S. Clucas 4'

T. Edwards 62' (OG)

F. Diedhiou 55'

9/14/2019

Championship · Round 7bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 57+ matches

Stoke City39%

×Draw27%

Bristol City34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.17

Stoke City

1.27

Bristol City

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 62 away

1.19

creates per match

1.10

1.23

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Stoke City

1.19

Bristol City

1.10

allows per match

Stoke City

1.23

Bristol City

1.34

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Stoke City+0.13scores more

Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

66%

Stoke City or Bristol City

73%

Draw or Bristol City

61%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

17%

Bristol City wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

72%

Stoke City 2+ goals

36%

Stoke City 3+ goals

14%

Bristol City 1+ goals

69%

Bristol City 2+ goals

33%

Bristol City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

53%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.23 · 57 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.19 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bristol City attack 1.10 + Stoke City defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stoke City scores more

39%

level

27%

Bristol City scores more

34%

Stoke City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

J. Hunt

Bristol City · M

7.5

Match Events

4'

S. Clucas↳ B. Martins Indi

12'

18'

55'

61'

61'

N. Eliasson← K. Palmer

62'

T. EdwardsOwn goal

63'

O. Etebo← T. Ince

68'

T. Campbell← J. McClean

71'

76'

79'

81'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeBristol

Overview

36%Possession64%

11Total Shots12

6Corners7

13Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots12

4On Target3

4Off Target5

3Blocked4

7Inside Box7

4Outside Box5

Passing

36%Possession64%

276Total Passes520

193Accurate Passes417

70%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2