Stockay-Warfusée 1–0 Sporting Charleroi II

Stockay-Warfusée

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting Charleroi II

A. Sternon 62'

10/19/2025

League #487 · ACFF - 9Terrain rue Joseph Wauters

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Stockay-Warfusée32%

×Draw26%

Sporting Charleroi II42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stockay-WarfuséeExpected goals in this matchSporting Charleroi II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.45

Stockay-Warfusée

1.23

Sporting Charleroi II

1.45

Sporting Charleroi II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 7 away

1.17

creates per match

1.57

1.33

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Stockay-Warfusée

1.17

Sporting Charleroi II

1.57

allows per match

Stockay-Warfusée

1.33

Sporting Charleroi II

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stockay-Warfusée+0.00on par

Sporting Charleroi II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockay-Warfusée ↓

Sporting Charleroi II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Stockay-Warfusée or draw

58%

Stockay-Warfusée or Sporting Charleroi II

74%

Draw or Sporting Charleroi II

68%

Winning margin

Stockay-Warfusée wins by 2+

13%

Sporting Charleroi II wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Stockay-Warfusée 1+ goals

71%

Stockay-Warfusée 2+ goals

35%

Stockay-Warfusée 3+ goals

13%

Sporting Charleroi II 1+ goals

77%

Sporting Charleroi II 2+ goals

42%

Sporting Charleroi II 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Stockay-Warfusée (draw refunded)

43%

Sporting Charleroi II (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockay-Warfusée at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Sporting Charleroi II away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockay-Warfusée attack 1.17 + Sporting Charleroi II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sporting Charleroi II attack 1.57 + Stockay-Warfusée defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stockay-Warfusée scores more

32%

level

26%

Sporting Charleroi II scores more

42%

Sporting Charleroi II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sporting Charleroi II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

Y. Cisse

62'

A. Sternon

90+2'

M. Kera

Stockay-Warfusée

Sporting

Manager: S. Demets

Manager: F. Defays