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Sporting Charleroi II vs Stockay-Warfusée — League #487 2026

Sporting Charleroi II
Sporting Charleroi II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Stockay-Warfusée
Stockay-Warfusée
Y. Djongambo Apo 83'
Y. Cisse 32', 8'
M. Lallemand 49'
S. Babara 22'
2/28/2026League #487League #487 · ACFF - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sporting Charleroi II36%
×Draw25%
Stockay-Warfusée39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Charleroi II
1.39
Stockay-Warfusée
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sporting Charleroi II
1.25
Stockay-Warfusée
1.12

allows per match

Sporting Charleroi II
1.75
Stockay-Warfusée
1.53

finishing

Sporting Charleroi II+0.00on par
Stockay-Warfusée+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Charleroi II ↓

Stockay-Warfusée →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sporting Charleroi II or draw
61%
Sporting Charleroi II or Stockay-Warfusée
75%
Draw or Stockay-Warfusée
64%

Winning margin

Sporting Charleroi II wins by 2+
17%
Stockay-Warfusée wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sporting Charleroi II 1+ goals
75%
Sporting Charleroi II 2+ goals
40%
Sporting Charleroi II 3+ goals
16%
Stockay-Warfusée 1+ goals
76%
Stockay-Warfusée 2+ goals
42%
Stockay-Warfusée 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sporting Charleroi II (draw refunded)
48%
Stockay-Warfusée (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Charleroi II at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Stockay-Warfusée away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Charleroi II attack 1.25 + Stockay-Warfusée defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.39

Stockay-Warfusée attack 1.12 + Sporting Charleroi II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sporting Charleroi II scores more
36%
level
25%
Stockay-Warfusée scores more
39%

Stockay-Warfusée at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stockay-Warfusée will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
Y. Cisse
22'
S. Babara
32'
Y. Cisse
49'
M. Lallemand
78'
83'
Y. Djongambo Apo
Sporting
Stockay-Warfusée
F. Defays
Manager: F. Defays
S. Demets
Manager: S. Demets

League #487: Sporting Charleroi II 3–2 Stockay-Warfusée

Sporting Charleroi II beat Stockay-Warfusée 3-2 in League #487 on February 28, 2026.

Goals: Y. Cisse (8', 32'), S. Babara (22'), M. Lallemand (49'), Y. Djongambo Apo (83').