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Sporting Charleroi II vs Stockay-Warfusée — League #487 2026

Sporting Charleroi II
Sporting Charleroi II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Stockay-Warfusée
Stockay-Warfusée
Y. Cisse 76' (pen)
A. Stanic 23'
M. Lallemand 16'
11/30/2025League #487League #487 · ACFF - 15Stade de la Neuville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sporting Charleroi II44%
×Draw24%
Stockay-Warfusée32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Charleroi II
1.65
Stockay-Warfusée
1.36

Sporting Charleroi II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 16 away

creates per match

Sporting Charleroi II
1.67
Stockay-Warfusée
1.06

allows per match

Sporting Charleroi II
1.67
Stockay-Warfusée
1.63

finishing

Sporting Charleroi II+0.00on par
Stockay-Warfusée+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Charleroi II ↓

Stockay-Warfusée →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sporting Charleroi II or draw
68%
Sporting Charleroi II or Stockay-Warfusée
76%
Draw or Stockay-Warfusée
56%

Winning margin

Sporting Charleroi II wins by 2+
23%
Stockay-Warfusée wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sporting Charleroi II 1+ goals
81%
Sporting Charleroi II 2+ goals
49%
Sporting Charleroi II 3+ goals
23%
Stockay-Warfusée 1+ goals
74%
Stockay-Warfusée 2+ goals
39%
Stockay-Warfusée 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sporting Charleroi II (draw refunded)
58%
Stockay-Warfusée (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Charleroi II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Stockay-Warfusée away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Charleroi II attack 1.67 + Stockay-Warfusée defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.65

Stockay-Warfusée attack 1.06 + Sporting Charleroi II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sporting Charleroi II scores more
44%
level
24%
Stockay-Warfusée scores more
32%

Sporting Charleroi II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sporting Charleroi II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
M. Lallemand
23'
A. Stanic
76'
Y. CissePenalty
Sporting
Stockay-Warfusée
F. Defays
Manager: F. Defays
S. Demets
Manager: S. Demets

League #487: Sporting Charleroi II 2–1 Stockay-Warfusée

Sporting Charleroi II beat Stockay-Warfusée 2-1 in League #487 on November 30, 2025.

Goals: M. Lallemand (16'), A. Stanic (23'), Y. Cisse (76' pen).

The match was played at Stade de la Neuville in Charleroi.