Sporting Charleroi II 0–2 Stockay-Warfusée

Sporting Charleroi II

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Stockay-Warfusée

S. Koné 73', 34'

1/26/2025

League #487 · ACFF - 20Stade de la Neuville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sporting Charleroi II40%

×Draw26%

Stockay-Warfusée33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting Charleroi IIExpected goals in this matchStockay-Warfusée

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.22

Sporting Charleroi II

1.36

Stockay-Warfusée

1.22

Sporting Charleroi II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 18 away

1.17

creates per match

1.11

1.33

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Sporting Charleroi II

1.17

Stockay-Warfusée

1.11

allows per match

Sporting Charleroi II

1.33

Stockay-Warfusée

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Charleroi II+0.00on par

Stockay-Warfusée+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Charleroi II ↓

Stockay-Warfusée →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sporting Charleroi II or draw

67%

Sporting Charleroi II or Stockay-Warfusée

74%

Draw or Stockay-Warfusée

60%

Winning margin

Sporting Charleroi II wins by 2+

18%

Stockay-Warfusée wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sporting Charleroi II 1+ goals

74%

Sporting Charleroi II 2+ goals

39%

Sporting Charleroi II 3+ goals

16%

Stockay-Warfusée 1+ goals

70%

Stockay-Warfusée 2+ goals

34%

Stockay-Warfusée 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sporting Charleroi II (draw refunded)

54%

Stockay-Warfusée (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Charleroi II at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Stockay-Warfusée away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Charleroi II attack 1.17 + Stockay-Warfusée defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.36

Stockay-Warfusée attack 1.11 + Sporting Charleroi II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sporting Charleroi II scores more

40%

level

26%

Stockay-Warfusée scores more

33%

Sporting Charleroi II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sporting Charleroi II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

S. Koné

45'

T. Lutte← A. Mulumba Kankonde

64'

Y. Djongambo Apo← J. Matadi

64'

N. Monkoy← A. Stanić

65'

A. Patris← G. Thiry

69'

S. Sylla← T. Panepinto

73'

S. Koné

81'

J. Capon← A. Boukamir

81'

S. Kari← S. Miantezila Lombe

87'

I. Kambuania← Z. Nadrani

Sporting

Stockay-Warfusée

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: F. Defays

45'▲T. Lutte←▼A. Mulumba Kankonde

64'▲Y. Djongambo Apo←▼J. Matadi

64'▲N. Monkoy←▼A. Stanić

81'▲J. Capon←▼A. Boukamir

81'▲S. Kari←▼S. Miantezila Lombe

Sporting Charleroi II substitutes

LutteApoMonkoyCaponKari

Manager: S. Demets

65'▲A. Patris←▼G. Thiry

69'▲S. Sylla←▼T. Panepinto

87'▲I. Kambuania←▼Z. Nadrani

Stockay-Warfusée substitutes

PatrisSyllaKambuania

Match Recap: Sporting Charleroi II vs Stockay-Warfusée

Stockay-Warfusée beat Sporting Charleroi II 2-0 in League #487 on January 26, 2025.

Goals: S. Koné (34', 73').

The match was played at Stade de la Neuville in Charleroi.

Sporting Charleroi II vs Stockay-Warfusée — League #487 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sporting Charleroi II vs Stockay-Warfusée