Stevenage 5–0 Barrow: Result & Stats | League Two

Stevenage

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Barrow

T. Warren 86' (OG)

L. Norris 78' (pen)

D. Sweeney 75'

J. Reid 50'

J. Reeves 18'

12/2/2022

League Two · Round 20The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Stevenage45%

×Draw27%

Barrow28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StevenageExpected goals in this matchBarrow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.02

Stevenage

1.38

Barrow

1.02

Stevenage creates 35% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 138 away

1.31

creates per match

0.99

1.04

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Stevenage

1.31

Barrow

0.99

allows per match

Stevenage

1.04

Barrow

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par

Barrow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Barrow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw

72%

Stevenage or Barrow

73%

Draw or Barrow

55%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+

21%

Barrow wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals

75%

Stevenage 2+ goals

40%

Stevenage 3+ goals

16%

Barrow 1+ goals

64%

Barrow 2+ goals

27%

Barrow 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)

62%

Barrow (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 94 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.44 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.31 + Barrow defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.38

Barrow attack 0.99 + Stevenage defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stevenage scores more

45%

level

27%

Barrow scores more

28%

Stevenage at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

J. Reeves

Stevenage · M

7.9

Match Events

18'

J. Reeves↳ S. Earley

40'

George Ray

50'

J. Reid

56'

S. Foley← B. Whitfield

63'

Alex Gilbey

65'

Luther James-Wildin

70'

R. Bennett← J. Kay

70'

S. Nwabuokei← T. White

75'

D. Sweeney↳ J. Reeves

78'

L. NorrisPenalty

86'

T. WarrenOwn goal

88'

J. Taylor← D. Campbell

90+2'

D. Rose← J. Reid

90+2'

D. Amoo← L. Norris

90+3'

M. Clark← A. Gilbey

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StevenageBarrow

Overview

50%Possession50%

8Total Shots10

5Corners2

14Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots10

4On Target0

2Off Target7

2Blocked3

5Inside Box5

3Outside Box5

Passing

50%Possession50%

332Total Passes337

215Accurate Passes180

65%Pass Accuracy53%

Discipline

14Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2