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Stevenage vs Barrow — League Two 2018

Stevenage
Stevenage
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Barrow
Barrow
L. Norris 87' (pen)
E. List 53'
C. Andrew 78'
3/27/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 38The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Stevenage45%
×Draw27%
Barrow28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stevenage
1.38
Barrow
1.02

Stevenage creates 35% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 138 away

creates per match

Stevenage
1.31
Barrow
0.99

allows per match

Stevenage
1.04
Barrow
1.44

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par
Barrow+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Barrow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw
72%
Stevenage or Barrow
73%
Draw or Barrow
55%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+
21%
Barrow wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals
75%
Stevenage 2+ goals
40%
Stevenage 3+ goals
16%
Barrow 1+ goals
64%
Barrow 2+ goals
27%
Barrow 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)
62%
Barrow (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 94 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.44 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.31 + Barrow defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.38

Barrow attack 0.99 + Stevenage defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stevenage scores more
45%
level
27%
Barrow scores more
28%

Stevenage at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40
C. LinesStevenageStevenage · M
7.3

Match Events

53'
E. List↳ L. Wildin
67'
J. Devitt← J. Taylor
67'
O. Banks← K. Ntlhe
67'
L. James← T. Beadling
68'
Ollie Banks
76'
C. Andrew← S. Quigley
78'
C. Andrew↳ B. Barry
84'
J. Aitchison← A. Read
84'
J. Smith← E. Osborne
84'
M. Stevens← E. List
87'
Josh Kay
87'
Bradley Barry
87'
L. NorrisPenalty
90+2'
J. Martin← C. Lines
90+2'
R. Vincelot← L. Norris

Possession

56%Stevenage

Shots

12Stevenage

Pass accuracy

53%Stevenage

Statistics

StevenageBarrow
Overview
56%Possession44%
12Total Shots5
6Corners1
9Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots5
5On Target2
4Off Target2
3Blocked1
10Inside Box4
2Outside Box1
Passing
56%Possession44%
454Total Passes358
320Accurate Passes222
70%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls13
0Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Stevenage vs Barrow

Stevenage beat Barrow 2-1 in League Two on March 27, 2021.

Goals: E. List (53'), C. Andrew (78'), L. Norris (87' pen).

Stevenage controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 5.

The match was played at The Lamex Stadium in Stevenage, Hertfordshire.