Barrow 0–0 Stevenage: Result & Stats | League Two

Barrow

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stevenage

2/12/2022

League Two · Round 32The Dunes Hotel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Barrow42%

×Draw29%

Stevenage29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarrowExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.96

Barrow

1.22

Stevenage

0.96

Barrow creates 27% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 100 away

1.20

creates per match

0.80

1.12

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Barrow

1.20

Stevenage

0.80

allows per match

Barrow

1.12

Stevenage

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barrow+0.00on par

Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Barrow or draw

71%

Barrow or Stevenage

71%

Draw or Stevenage

58%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+

18%

Stevenage wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals

70%

Barrow 2+ goals

34%

Barrow 3+ goals

12%

Stevenage 1+ goals

62%

Stevenage 2+ goals

25%

Stevenage 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)

59%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 138 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 1.20 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Barrow defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Barrow scores more

42%

level

29%

Stevenage scores more

29%

Barrow at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Barrow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

P. Brough

Barrow · D

7.7

Match Events

52'

55'

62'

65'

70'

73'

82'

M. Platt← A. Driscoll-Glennon

90+7'

Luke Prosser

90+7'

Luke Prosser

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarrowStevenage

Overview

56%Possession44%

11Total Shots8

8Corners2

3Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots8

2On Target4

5Off Target1

4Blocked3

4Inside Box5

7Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

529Total Passes422

432Accurate Passes323

82%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

3Fouls14

0Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

2Offsides0