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Barrow vs Stevenage — League Two 2018

Barrow
Barrow
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stevenage
Stevenage
J. Reeves 25'
5/8/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 46SO Legal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Barrow42%
×Draw29%
Stevenage29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barrow
1.22
Stevenage
0.96

Barrow creates 27% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 100 away

creates per match

Barrow
1.20
Stevenage
0.80

allows per match

Barrow
1.12
Stevenage
1.24

finishing

Barrow+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Barrow or draw
71%
Barrow or Stevenage
71%
Draw or Stevenage
58%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+
18%
Stevenage wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals
70%
Barrow 2+ goals
34%
Barrow 3+ goals
12%
Stevenage 1+ goals
62%
Stevenage 2+ goals
25%
Stevenage 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)
59%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 138 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 1.20 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Barrow defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Barrow scores more
42%
level
29%
Stevenage scores more
29%

Barrow at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Barrow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
J. ReevesStevenageStevenage · M
7.7

Match Events

25'
J. Reeves
45+1'
Paul Farman
45+1'
Jake Forster-Caskey
48'
A. Gilbey← D. Campbell
58'
J. Reid← J. Taylor
78'
M. Evans← D. Rose
79'
K. Smith← L. James-Wildin
79'
J. Roberts← D. Horgan
81'
J. Taylor← S. McClelland
81'
J. Young← E. Newby
82'
P. Żuk← J. Kay
82'
B. Smales-Braithwaite← G. Garner

Possession

49%Barrow

Shots

10Barrow

Pass accuracy

50%Barrow

Statistics

BarrowStevenage
Overview
49%Possession51%
10Total Shots10
2Corners2
8Fouls14
Shots
10Total Shots10
4On Target2
4Off Target7
2Blocked1
6Inside Box9
4Outside Box1
Passing
49%Possession51%
361Total Passes385
239Accurate Passes254
66%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
8Fouls14
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Barrow vs Stevenage

Stevenage beat Barrow 1-0 in League Two on May 8, 2023.

Goals: J. Reeves (25').

Stevenage controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at SO Legal Stadium in Barrow-in-Furness, Cumbria.