Stenhousemuir 1–4 Ayr Utd: Result & Stats

Stenhousemuir

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Ayr Utd

R. Taylor 6'

J. Henderson 65'

A. Dowds 56'

F. Musonda 26'

G. Oakley 8'

7/23/2024

League Cup · Group Stage - 7Ochilview Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Stenhousemuir31%

×Draw23%

Ayr Utd45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StenhousemuirExpected goals in this matchAyr Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.73

Stenhousemuir

1.41

Ayr Utd

1.73

Ayr Utd creates 23% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 19 away

1.35

creates per match

2.00

1.47

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Stenhousemuir

1.35

Ayr Utd

2.00

allows per match

Stenhousemuir

1.47

Ayr Utd

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stenhousemuir+0.00on par

Ayr Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stenhousemuir ↓

Ayr Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Stenhousemuir or draw

55%

Stenhousemuir or Ayr Utd

77%

Draw or Ayr Utd

69%

Winning margin

Stenhousemuir wins by 2+

14%

Ayr Utd wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Stenhousemuir 1+ goals

76%

Stenhousemuir 2+ goals

41%

Stenhousemuir 3+ goals

17%

Ayr Utd 1+ goals

82%

Ayr Utd 2+ goals

52%

Ayr Utd 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Stenhousemuir (draw refunded)

41%

Ayr Utd (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stenhousemuir at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Ayr Utd away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stenhousemuir attack 1.35 + Ayr Utd defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.41

Ayr Utd attack 2.00 + Stenhousemuir defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stenhousemuir scores more

31%

level

23%

Ayr Utd scores more

45%

Ayr Utd at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ayr Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

K. Banner← N. Jamieson

6'

R. Taylor↳ K. Bilham

8'

G. Oakley↳ J. Henderson

26'

F. Musonda↳ B. Dempsey

46'

54'

56'

62'

62'

65'

68'

L. McRoberts← J. Henderson

68'

S. Tomlinson← A. Dowds

69'

K. Banner

71'

K. Ewen← K. Bilham

71'

E. O'Reilly← R. Taylor

77'

P. Reading← B. Dempsey

80'

C. O'Donnell← M. Aitken

Stenhousemuir

Ayr

34

Stone

33

McMann

4

⚽

Musonda

14

Stanger

2

McAlliste

8

A

▼

Dempsey

17

⚽A

▼

Henderson

9

⚽A

▼

Oakley

16

▼

Hastie

7

⚽

▼

22

34

4

2

5

▼

Jamieson

14

A

▼

Bilham

6

Wedderbur

11

▼

Brown

17

Anderson

12

⚽

▼

Taylor

9

▼

Aitken

10

Yates

Manager: G. Naysmith

4'▲K. Banner←▼N. Jamieson

46'▲J. Berry←▼A. Brown

71'▲K. Ewen←▼K. Bilham

71'▲E. O'Reilly←▼R. Taylor

80'▲C. O'Donnell←▼M. Aitken

Stenhousemuir substitutes

18Banner8Berry3Ewen7O'Reilly19O'Donnell20Aitken1Jamieson

Manager: S. Brown

62'▲J. Murphy←▼J. Hastie

62'▲F. Bryden←▼G. Oakley

68'▲L. McRoberts←▼J. Henderson

68'▲S. Tomlinson←▼A. Dowds

77'▲P. Reading←▼B. Dempsey

Ayr Utd substitutes

15Murphy11Bryden29McRoberts24Tomlinson3Reading20Syla21Walker38Russell32Watret

League Cup: Stenhousemuir 1–4 Ayr Utd

Ayr Utd beat Stenhousemuir 4-1 in League Cup on July 23, 2024.

Goals: R. Taylor (6'), G. Oakley (8'), F. Musonda (26'), A. Dowds (56'), J. Henderson (65').

The match was played at Ochilview Park in Stenhousemuir.

Stenhousemuir vs Ayr Utd — League Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League Cup: Stenhousemuir 1–4 Ayr Utd