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Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir — League Cup 2018

Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir
7/24/2018League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 6Somerset Park (Ayr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ayr Utd80%
×Draw13%
Stenhousemuir7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayr Utd
2.67
Stenhousemuir
0.63

Ayr Utd creates 324% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Ayr Utd
2.69
Stenhousemuir
0.71

allows per match

Ayr Utd
0.54
Stenhousemuir
2.64

finishing

Ayr Utd+0.00on par
Stenhousemuir+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayr Utd ↓

Stenhousemuir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ayr Utd or draw
93%
Ayr Utd or Stenhousemuir
87%
Draw or Stenhousemuir
20%

Winning margin

Ayr Utd wins by 2+
59%
Stenhousemuir wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Ayr Utd 1+ goals
93%
Ayr Utd 2+ goals
74%
Ayr Utd 3+ goals
49%
Stenhousemuir 1+ goals
47%
Stenhousemuir 2+ goals
13%
Stenhousemuir 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ayr Utd (draw refunded)
92%
Stenhousemuir (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayr Utd at home — creates 2.69, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

Stenhousemuir away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayr Utd attack 2.69 + Stenhousemuir defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.67

Stenhousemuir attack 0.71 + Ayr Utd defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Ayr Utd scores more
80%
level
13%
Stenhousemuir scores more
7%

Ayr Utd at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Ayr Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir

Ayr Utd beat Stenhousemuir 5-0 in League Cup on July 24, 2018.

The match was played at Somerset Park (Ayr).