Ayr Utd 4–1 Stenhousemuir: Result & Stats

Ayr Utd

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stenhousemuir

3/8/2016

League #183 · Round 23Somerset Park (Ayr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ayr Utd63%

×Draw20%

Stenhousemuir17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ayr UtdExpected goals in this matchStenhousemuir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.06

Ayr Utd

2.20

Stenhousemuir

1.06

Ayr Utd creates 108% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

3.00

creates per match

0.80

1.33

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Ayr Utd

3.00

Stenhousemuir

0.80

allows per match

Ayr Utd

1.33

Stenhousemuir

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ayr Utd+0.00on par

Stenhousemuir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayr Utd ↓

Stenhousemuir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Ayr Utd or draw

83%

Ayr Utd or Stenhousemuir

80%

Draw or Stenhousemuir

37%

Winning margin

Ayr Utd wins by 2+

40%

Stenhousemuir wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ayr Utd 1+ goals

89%

Ayr Utd 2+ goals

64%

Ayr Utd 3+ goals

37%

Stenhousemuir 1+ goals

65%

Stenhousemuir 2+ goals

29%

Stenhousemuir 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ayr Utd (draw refunded)

78%

Stenhousemuir (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayr Utd at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Stenhousemuir away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayr Utd attack 3.00 + Stenhousemuir defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.20

Stenhousemuir attack 0.80 + Ayr Utd defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ayr Utd scores more

63%

level

20%

Stenhousemuir scores more

17%

Ayr Utd at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ayr Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff