Stenhousemuir 0–4 Ayr Utd: Result & Stats

Stenhousemuir

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Ayr Utd

J. Preston 88', 79' (pen)

C. Moore 47'

M. Donald 1'

4/16/2016

League #183 · Round 34Ochilview Park (Stenhousemuir)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Stenhousemuir2%

×Draw8%

Ayr Utd90%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StenhousemuirExpected goals in this matchAyr Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.25

2.96

Stenhousemuir

0.25

Ayr Utd

2.96

Ayr Utd creates 1084% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

0.50

creates per match

3.67

2.25

allows per match

0.00

creates per match

Stenhousemuir

0.50

Ayr Utd

3.67

allows per match

Stenhousemuir

2.25

Ayr Utd

0.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stenhousemuir+0.00on par

Ayr Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No79
Yes21

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stenhousemuir ↓

Ayr Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–112%

0–218%

0–318%

0–413%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–25%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–00%

2–10%

2–21%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (18%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Stenhousemuir or draw

10%

Stenhousemuir or Ayr Utd

92%

Draw or Ayr Utd

98%

Winning margin

Stenhousemuir wins by 2+

0%

Ayr Utd wins by 2+

73%

Team goals

Stenhousemuir 1+ goals

22%

Stenhousemuir 2+ goals

3%

Stenhousemuir 3+ goals

0%

Ayr Utd 1+ goals

95%

Ayr Utd 2+ goals

79%

Ayr Utd 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

Stenhousemuir (draw refunded)

2%

Ayr Utd (draw refunded)

98%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stenhousemuir at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Ayr Utd away — creates 3.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stenhousemuir attack 0.50 + Ayr Utd defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.25

Ayr Utd attack 3.67 + Stenhousemuir defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Stenhousemuir scores more

2%

level

8%

Ayr Utd scores more

90%

Ayr Utd at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Ayr Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

M. Donald

46'

R. McCrorie← A. Forrest

47'

C. Moore

58'

C. Summers← J. Robertson

73'

M. Wardrope← R. Crawford

76'

A. Marenghi← C. McMenamin

76'

R. Stevenson← C. Moore

79'

J. PrestonPenalty

88'

J. Preston

90+2'

L. McCroary← S. Stirling

Stenhousemuir

Ayr

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

58'▲C. Summers←▼J. Robertson

76'▲A. Marenghi←▼C. McMenamin

90+2'▲L. McCroary←▼S. Stirling

Stenhousemuir substitutes

SummersMarenghiMcCroaryEddingtonHamiltonBarclayMillar

46'▲R. McCrorie←▼A. Forrest

73'▲M. Wardrope←▼R. Crawford

76'▲R. Stevenson←▼C. Moore

Ayr Utd substitutes

McCrorieWardropeStevensonHodgeMcGuffieMcLauchlanNewman