Start 1–1 Haugesund: Result & Stats

Start

FT

1 – 1

Haugesund

5/9/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sparebanken Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Start69%

×Draw17%

Haugesund14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StartExpected goals in this matchHaugesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.08

Start

2.54

Haugesund

1.08

Start creates 135% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

1.58

creates per match

0.83

1.33

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Start

1.58

Haugesund

0.83

allows per match

Start

1.33

Haugesund

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Start+0.00on par

Haugesund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start ↓

Haugesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Start or draw

86%

Start or Haugesund

83%

Draw or Haugesund

31%

Winning margin

Start wins by 2+

47%

Haugesund wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Start 1+ goals

92%

Start 2+ goals

72%

Start 3+ goals

46%

Haugesund 1+ goals

66%

Haugesund 2+ goals

29%

Haugesund 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Start (draw refunded)

83%

Haugesund (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

Haugesund away — creates 0.83, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start attack 1.58 + Haugesund defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.54

Haugesund attack 0.83 + Start defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Start scores more

69%

level

17%

Haugesund scores more

14%

Start at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff